Responses: 228
Respondents: 31
Forecasting is hard because many people don't have probabilistic knowledge
👍 74%👎 9%🤷 17%
Decision makers on the margin should use more prediction markets
👍 73%👎 0%🤷 27%
Decision makers don't care so much about the best decisions as political decision
👍 68%👎 9%🤷 23%
Forecasting can probably reduce costs in running RCTs
👍 63%👎 8%🤷 29%
Decision makers on the margin should reflect more on their process and calibration
👍 63%👎 13%🤷 25%
Decision makers on the margin should outsource more decisions to specialized superforecasters
👍 63%👎 25%🤷 13%
Forecasting is underrated as horizon scanning
👍 59%👎 0%🤷 41%
It is surprising how little we see forecasting in decision making processes
👍 57%👎 30%🤷 13%
Decision makers on the margin should think more quantitatively
👍 50%👎 17%🤷 33%
I use forecasting processes to help my personal decisions
👍 48%👎 48%🤷 4%
Forecasting is better as a footnote/reference than the centerpiece of a discussion
👍 23%👎 41%🤷 36%
It's better to hear from forecasters than to run forecasting processes
👍 5%👎 33%🤷 62%
Ass balls
👍 0%👎 33%🤷 67%
Forecasting is hard and a lot of policy makers deal with problems that are difficult to break down. Maybe they wouldn’t benefit too much from forecasting outside of specific use cases?
👍 25%👎 25%🤷 50%