Forecasting isnt Working for Decision Makers

Forecasting is hard because many people don't have probabilistic knowledge

Decision makers on the margin should use more prediction markets

Decision makers don't care so much about the best decisions as political decision

Forecasting can probably reduce costs in running RCTs

Decision makers on the margin should reflect more on their process and calibration

Decision makers on the margin should outsource more decisions to specialized superforecasters

Forecasting is underrated as horizon scanning

It is surprising how little we see forecasting in decision making processes

Decision makers on the margin should think more quantitatively

I use forecasting processes to help my personal decisions

Forecasting is better as a footnote/reference than the centerpiece of a discussion

It's better to hear from forecasters than to run forecasting processes

Ass balls

Forecasting is hard and a lot of policy makers deal with problems that are difficult to break down. Maybe they wouldn’t benefit too much from forecasting outside of specific use cases?