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What do you mean by doom when you see a p(doom) supplied or elicited?

What is p(doom) referring to? I will use the word "directly" to mean "the AI pulls the trigger with a chain of actuators under length two", so if it persuades a human to release a bioweapon that molecularly kills everyone that would count as "directly", but if the AI persuades the voters of some nation to elect an unhinged politician who detonates some light nukes that meteorologically and agriculturally weaken resilience so that we later get taken out by a small asteroid we otherwise would have bounced back from it would count as "indirectly" (but may still be on purpose). I will count an action "of an AI's own volition" if it is done with complicated and illegible stories about how it grew from a human principal's initial volition rather than simple stories that the human principal themself would understand and endorse. Likewise, "without the principal's volition being subverted by their AI assistant" means that they would not on reflection feel like they had been tricked, misled, lied to, or disobeyed.

21 people have given 95 responses

AgreeDisagreeConsensusConflictConfusionRecent

Statements with the highest number of 👍 or the highest number of 👎 appear at the top (if everyone thinks 👎, that's consensus too)

doom is an AI killing everyone indirectly and on accident, while trying to do something of it's own volition

88%
13%

doom is an AI killing everyone directly but by accident (like by forgetting how important H20 is to us or not doing a unit conversion right), while trying to do something of it's own volition

80%
10%
10%

doom is an AI killing everyone directly and on purpose of its own volition

75%
25%

doom is an AI killing everyone indirectly (like by exacerbating climate or nuclear problems), but on purpose and of it's own volition. So it's just a longer and sneakier theory of change than killing everyone directly on purpose of its own volition

75%
25%

doom is a human assisted by an AI killing everyone directly and on purpose without their volition being subverted by their AI assistant

67%
22%
11%

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doom is a human assisted by an AI killing everyone directly but by accident without their volition between subverted by their AI assistant.

55%
27%
18%

doom is not everyone dying, merely disempowered, and AIs don't steer the cosmic endowment into something we endorse, and our opportunity to gain back the cosmic endowment is permanently destroyed.

53%
13%
33%

doom is a human assisted by an AI killing everyone indirectly and on accident (like by making an honest error in a calculation), but their intentions were not subverted by their AI assistant.

45%
36%
18%

doom is a human assisted by an AI killing everyone indirectly but on purpose without their volition being subverted by their AI assistant.

36%
36%
27%